Experts divided on U.S. NPT call to Israel (4)
NUCLEAR-FREE MIDDLE EAST
Some experts argue that Israel will only change its spots if and when Iran declares that it has nuclear weapons of its own.
However, Aronson sees that as something of a moot point because he does not believe Iran has any intention of admitting to possessing nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.
"They will also play the ambiguity card," he said, adding that if Iran conducts a nuclear test it puts Tehran in the crosshair, not Israel.
Oelrich does not envisage a point at which Israel will be forced to come clean, but he does see a general move towards a reduction in nuclear arsenals around the world. This was brought into sharp relief this week with the signing in Prague of the nuclear stockpile reduction accord by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
"I think Israel, like India and Pakistan, and even the U.S. and Russia will eventually realize that nuclear weapons harm more than they enhance their security. 'Eventually' in all these cases is probably further into the future than I would like, but we are moving in that direction," said Oelrich.